Early prehabilitation in suspected locally advanced and metastatic lung cancer.

OBJECTIVES: The most common treatment for locally advanced and metastatic lung cancer is best supportive care. Patients with lung cancer are often comorbid with a high symptom burden. We wanted to assess whether early prehabilitation was feasible in patients with likely lung cancer. METHODS: Patients were offered prehabilitation if they were attending the new patient respiratory clinic, had a CT scan suggesting stage III or IV lung cancer and undergoing further investigations. Patients receiving palliative care were ineligible. All prehabilitation patients were referred to a palliative medicine physician, registered dietitian and rehabilitation physiotherapist. RESULTS: 50 patients underwent prehabilitation between June 2021 and August 2022. The median age was 72 years (range 54-89 years). 48 patients had lung cancer. 84% of patients attended all three interventions.Half of the palliative care consultations focused on pain. Half of the patients seen had a change in medication. 25% of patients' weights were stable, 32% required a food-first strategy and 33% required oral nutritional supplements. 57% of patients discussed managing breathlessness with the physiotherapist. CONCLUSIONS: Early prehabilitation is feasible alongside the investigation of locally advanced and metastatic lung cancer. Further work will aim to assess its impact on admission to the hospital, survival and treatment rates.

Heart rate recovery after orthostatic challenge and cardiopulmonary exercise testing in older individuals: prospective multicentre observational cohort study.

Background: Impaired vagal function in older individuals, quantified by the 'gold standard' delayed heart rate recovery after maximal exercise (HRRexercise), is an independent predictor of cardiorespiratory capacity and mortality (particularly when HRR ≤12 beats min-1). Heart rate also often declines after orthostatic challenge (HRRorthostatic), but the mechanism remains unclear. We tested whether HRRorthostatic reflects similar vagal autonomic characteristics as HRRexercise. Methods: Prospective multicentre cohort study of subjects scheduled for cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) as part of routine care. Before undergoing CPET, heart rate was measured with participants seated for 3 min, before standing for 3 min (HRRorthostatic). HRRexercise 1 min after the end of CPET was recorded. The primary outcome was the correlation between mean heart rate change every 10 s for 1 min after peak heart rate was attained on standing and after exercise for each participant. Secondary outcomes were HRRorthostatic and peak VO2 compared between individuals with HRRexercise <12 beats min-1. Results: A total of 87 participants (mean age: 64 yr [95%CI: 61-66]; 48 (55%) females) completed both tests. Mean heart rate change every 10 s for 1 min after peak heart rate after standing and exercise was significantly correlated (R2=0.81; P<0.0001). HRRorthostatic was unchanged in individuals with HRRexercise ≤12 beats min-1 (n=27), but was lower when HRRexercise >12 beats min-1 (n=60; mean difference: 3 beats min-1 [95% confidence interval 1-5 beats min-1]; P<0.0001). Slower HRRorthostatic was associated with lower peak VO2 (mean difference: 3.7 ml kg-1 min-1 [95% confidence interval 0.7-6.8 ml kg-1 min-1]; P=0.039). Conclusion: Prognostically significant heart rate recovery after exhaustive exercise is characterised by quantitative differences in heart rate recovery after orthostatic challenge. These data suggest that orthostatic challenge is a valid, simple test indicating vagal impairment. Clinical trial registration: researchregistry6550.

Trends in coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS), England, 2010-2021.

Objective: To review the epidemiology of coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS) in England over the recent 12 year period. Methods: Laboratory-confirmed CoNS reported from sterile sites in patients in England to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) between 2010 and 2021 were extracted from the national laboratory database and analysed. Results: Overall, 668 857 episodes of CoNS were reported. Unspeciated CoNS accounted for 56 % (374 228) of episodes, followed by Staphylococcus epidermidis (26 %; 174 050), S. hominis (6.5 %; 43 501) and S. capitis (3.9 %; 25 773). Unspeciated CoNS increased by 8.2 % (95 % CI, 7.1-9.3) annually between 2010 and 2016, then decreased annually by 6.4 % (95 % CI: -4.8 to -7.9) until 2021. Speciated CoNS increased by 47.6 % (95 % CI, 44.5-50.9) annually between 2010 and 2016 and increased annually by 8.9 % (95 % CI: 5.1 to 12.8) until 2021. Antimicrobial susceptibility profiles differed by species. Conclusions: Reports of CoNS from normally sterile body sites in patients in England increased between 2010 and 2016 and remained stable between 2017 and 2021. There has been a striking improvement in species-level identification of CoNS in recent years. Monitoring trends in CoNS epidemiology is crucial for development of observational and clinical intervention studies on individual species.

Epidemiology of Early Monkeypox Virus Transmission in Sexual Networks of Gay and Bisexual Men, England, 2022.

After community transmission of monkeypox virus was identified in Europe, interviews of 45 case-patients from England indicated transmission in international sexual networks of gay and bisexual men since April 2022. Interventions targeting sex-on-premises venues, geospatial dating applications, and sexual health services are likely to be critical for outbreak control.

Developing a large-scale dataset of flood fatalities for territories in the Euro-Mediterranean region, FFEM-DB.

This data paper describes the multinational Database of Flood Fatalities from the Euro-Mediterranean region FFEM-DB that hosts data of 2,875 flood fatalities from 12 territories (nine of which represent entire countries) in Europe and the broader Mediterranean region from 1980 to 2020. The FFEM-DB database provides data on fatalities' profiles, location, and contributing circumstances, allowing researchers and flood risk managers to explore demographic, behavioral, and situational factors, as well as environmental features of flood-related mortality. The standardized data collection and classification methodology enable comparison between regions beyond administrative boundaries. The FFEM-DB is expandable, regularly updated, publicly available, and with anonymized data. The key advantages of the FFEM-DB compared to existing datasets containing flood fatalities are its high level of detail, data accuracy, record completeness, and the large sample size from an extended area.

Current European flood-rich period exceptional compared with past 500 years.

There are concerns that recent climate change is altering the frequency and magnitude of river floods in an unprecedented way1. Historical studies have identified flood-rich periods in the past half millennium in various regions of Europe2. However, because of the low temporal resolution of existing datasets and the relatively low number of series, it has remained unclear whether Europe is currently in a flood-rich period from a long-term perspective. Here we analyse how recent decades compare with the flood history of Europe, using a new database composed of more than 100 high-resolution (sub-annual) historical flood series based on documentary evidence covering all major regions of Europe. We show that the past three decades were among the most flood-rich periods in Europe in the past 500 years, and that this period differs from other flood-rich periods in terms of its extent, air temperatures and flood seasonality. We identified nine flood-rich periods and associated regions. Among the periods richest in floods are 1560-1580 (western and central Europe), 1760-1800 (most of Europe), 1840-1870 (western and southern Europe) and 1990-2016 (western and central Europe). In most parts of Europe, previous flood-rich periods occurred during cooler-than-usual phases, but the current flood-rich period has been much warmer. Flood seasonality is also more pronounced in the recent period. For example, during previous flood and interflood periods, 41 per cent and 42 per cent of central European floods occurred in summer, respectively, compared with 55 per cent of floods in the recent period. The exceptional nature of the present-day flood-rich period calls for process-based tools for flood-risk assessment that capture the physical mechanisms involved, and management strategies that can incorporate the recent changes in risk.

Prospective observational study of postoperative infection and outcomes after noncardiac surgery: analysis of prospective data from the VISION cohort.

BACKGROUND: Infection is a frequent cause of postoperative morbidity and mortality. The incidence, risk factors, and outcomes for postoperative infections remain poorly characterised. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of a prospective international cohort study of patients aged ≥45 yr who had noncardiac surgery (VISION), including data describing infection within 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome was postoperative infection. The secondary outcome was 30 day mortality. We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression to identify baseline risk factors for infection. Results are presented as n (%) or odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals. Some denominators vary according to rates of missing data. RESULTS: Among 39 996 surgical patients, 3905 (9.8%) experienced 5152 postoperative infections and 715 (1.8%) died. The most frequent infection was surgical site infection (1555/3905 [39.8%]). Infection was most strongly associated with general surgery (OR: 3.74 [3.11-4.49]; P<0.01) and open surgical technique (OR: 2.03 [1.82-2.27]; P<0.01); 30 day mortality was greater amongst patients who experienced infection (262/3905 [6.7%] vs 453/36 091 patients who did not [1.3%]; OR: 3.47 [2.84-4.22]; P<0.01). Mortality was highest amongst patients with CNS infections (OR: 14.72 [4.41-49.12]; P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Infection is a common and important complication of noncardiac surgery, which is associated with high mortality. Further research is needed to identify more effective measures to prevent infections after surgery.

Multi-century trends to wetter winters and drier summers in the England and Wales precipitation series explained by observational and sampling bias in early records.

Globally, few precipitation records extend to the 18th century. The England Wales Precipitation (EWP) series is a notable exception with continuous monthly records from 1766. EWP has found widespread use across diverse fields of research including trend detection, evaluation of climate model simulations, as a proxy for mid-latitude atmospheric circulation, a predictor in long-term European gridded precipitation data sets, the assessment of drought and extremes, tree-ring reconstructions and as a benchmark for other regional series. A key finding from EWP has been the multi-centennial trends towards wetter winters and drier summers. We statistically reconstruct seasonal EWP using independent, quality-assured temperature, pressure and circulation indices. Using a sleet and snow series for the UK derived by Profs. Gordon Manley and Elizabeth Shaw to examine winter reconstructions, we show that precipitation totals for pre-1870 winters are likely biased low due to gauge under-catch of snowfall and a higher incidence of snowfall during this period. When these factors are accounted for in our reconstructions, the observed trend to wetter winters in EWP is no longer evident. For summer, we find that pre-1820 precipitation totals are too high, likely due to decreasing network density and less certain data at key stations. A significant trend to drier summers is not robustly present in our reconstructions of the EWP series. While our findings are more certain for winter than summer, we highlight (a) that extreme caution should be exercised when using EWP to make inferences about multi-centennial trends, and; (b) that assessments of 18th and 19th Century winter precipitation should be aware of potential snow biases in early records. Our findings underline the importance of continual re-appraisal of established long-term climate data sets as new evidence becomes available. It is also likely that the identified biases in winter EWP have distorted many other long-term European precipitation series.

The effect of ginger (Zingiber officinale Roscoe) in patients with advanced cancer.

BACKGROUND: Anorexia-cachexia syndrome (ACS) is a complex condition in advanced cancer patients, defined by disproportionate loss of skeletal muscle mass, and a lack or loss of appetite. This condition greatly lowers the quality of life and limits the treatment options. ACS is commonly associated with gastrointestinal symptoms such as nausea and vomiting. Ginger has been successful in treating these symptoms but has not yet been tested on patients with advanced cancer. Electrogastrography is a technology that allows the direct recording of the gastric myoelectrical activity (GMA). PURPOSE: The aim of this study is to (1) determine the effects of ginger on the GMA in these patients, (2) evaluate the subjective symptoms using 3 validated scales, and (3) correlate the level of inflammatory factors and ghrelin in this patient population. METHODS: Patients with ACS and advanced cancer were recruited from the Palliative Rehabilitation outpatient program at Elisabeth Bruyère Hospital. Patients were instructed to take a daily capsule of 1650 mg of ginger for 14 days and outcome measures were recorded at pre- and post-intervention, which included a blood test for analysis of CRP, albumin and ghrelin levels, 3 self-administered surveys (DSSI, PG-SGA, ESAS), patient-reported symptoms, and an EGG diagnosis. RESULTS: Fifteen patients with a median age of 58 and varying cancer diagnoses were enrolled. EGG diagnosis showed that 9 of the 15 patients had a direct improvement in their GMA, and all patients showed improvement in reported symptoms, most notably nausea, dysmotility- and reflux-like symptoms. There was no correlation found for ginger administration and inflammatory factors. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that ginger may improve GMA as measured by EGG and may have a notable effect on symptom improvement.

The role of goal-directed therapy in the prevention of acute kidney injury after major gastrointestinal surgery: Substudy of the OPTIMISE trial.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is an important adverse outcome after major surgery. Peri-operative goal-directed haemodynamic therapy (GDT) may improve outcomes by reducing complications such as AKI. OBJECTIVE: To determine if GDT was associated with a reduced incidence of postoperative AKI according to specific renal biomarkers. DESIGN: Prospective substudy of the OPTIMISE trial, a multicentre randomised controlled trial comparing peri-operative GDT to usual patient care. SETTING: Four UK National Health Service hospitals. PATIENTS: A total of 287 high-risk patients aged at least 50 years undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was AKI defined as urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipase (NGAL) at least 150 ng ml 24 and 72 h after surgery. Secondary outcomes were between-group differences in NGAL measurements and NGAL : creatinine ratios 24 and 72 h after surgery and AKI stage 2 or greater according to Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria within 30 days of surgery. RESULTS: In total, 20 of 287 patients (7%) experienced postoperative AKI of KDIGO grade 2 or 3 within 30 days. The proportion of patients with urinary NGAL at least 150 ng ml 24 or 72 h after surgery was similar in the two groups [GDT 31/144 (21.5%) patients vs. usual patient care 28/143 (19.6%) patients; P = 0.88]. Absolute values of urinary NGAL were also similar at 24 h (GDT 53.5 vs. usual patient care 44.1 ng ml; P = 0.38) and 72 h (GDT 45.1 vs. usual patient care 41.1 ng ml; P = 0.50) as were urinary NGAL : creatinine ratios at 24 h (GDT 45 vs. usual patient care 43 ng mg; P = 0.63) and 72 h (GDT 66 vs. usual patient care 63 ng mg; P = 0.62). The incidence of KDIGO-defined AKI was also similar between the groups [GDT 9/144 (6%) patients vs. usual patient care 11/143 (8%) patients; P = 0.80]. CONCLUSION: In this trial, GDT did not reduce the incidence of AKI amongst high-risk patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. This may reflect improving standards in usual patient care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: OPTIMISE Trial Registration ISRCTN04386758.

Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods.

Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere1. These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe2. Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe3, because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results-arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far-suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century4,5, suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.

Challenges of investigating a large food-borne norovirus outbreak across all branches of a restaurant group in the United Kingdom, October 2016.

During October and November 2016, over 1,000 customers and staff reported gastroenteritis after eating at all 23 branches of a restaurant group in the United Kingdom. The outbreak coincided with a new menu launch and norovirus was identified as the causative agent. We conducted four retrospective cohort studies; one among all restaurant staff and three in customers at four branches. We investigated the dishes consumed, reviewed recipes, interviewed chefs and inspected restaurants to identify common ingredients and preparation methods for implicated dishes. Investigations were complicated by three public health agencies concurrently conducting multiple analytical studies, the complex menu with many shared constituent ingredients and the high media attention. The likely source was a contaminated batch of a nationally distributed ingredient, but analytical studies were unable to implicate a single ingredient. The most likely vehicle was a new chipotle chilli product imported from outside the European Union, that was used uncooked in the implicated dishes. This outbreak exemplifies the possibility of rapid spread of infectious agents within a restaurant supply chain, following introduction of a contaminated ingredient. It underlines the importance of appropriate risk assessments and control measures being in place, particularly for new ingredients and ready-to-eat foods.

Optimisation of Perioperative Cardiovascular Management to Improve Surgical Outcome II (OPTIMISE II) trial: study protocol for a multicentre international trial of cardiac output-guided fluid therapy with low-dose inotrope infusion compared with usual care in patients undergoing major elective gastrointestinal surgery.

INTRODUCTION: Postoperative morbidity and mortality in older patients with comorbidities undergoing gastrointestinal surgery are a major burden on healthcare systems. Infections after surgery are common in such patients, prolonging hospitalisation and reducing postoperative short-term and long-term survival. Optimal management of perioperative intravenous fluids and inotropic drugs may reduce infection rates and improve outcomes from surgery. Previous small trials of cardiac-output-guided haemodynamic therapy algorithms suggested a modest reduction in postoperative morbidity. A large definitive trial is needed to confirm or refute this and inform widespread clinical practice. METHODS: The Optimisation of Perioperative Cardiovascular Management to Improve Surgical Outcome II (OPTIMISE II) trial is a multicentre, international, parallel group, open, randomised controlled trial. 2502 high-risk patients undergoing major elective gastrointestinal surgery will be randomly allocated in a 1:1 ratio using minimisation to minimally invasive cardiac output monitoring to guide protocolised administration of intravenous fluid combined with low-dose inotrope infusion, or usual care. The trial intervention will be carried out during and for 4 hours after surgery. The primary outcome is postoperative infection of Clavien-Dindo grade II or higher within 30 days of randomisation. Participants and those delivering the intervention will not be blinded to treatment allocation; however, outcome assessors will be blinded when feasible. Participant recruitment started in January 2017 and is scheduled to last 3 years, within 50 hospitals worldwide. ETHICS/DISSEMINATION: The OPTIMISE II trial has been approved by the UK National Research Ethics Service and has been approved by responsible ethics committees in all participating countries. The findings will be disseminated through publication in a widely accessible peer-reviewed scientific journal. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN39653756.

Clostridium difficile infection in pregnant and postpartum women in 2 hospitals and a review of literature.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) in pregnant/postpartum women is underreported, especially outside of North America. We report a cluster of cases in 2 neighboring secondary care hospitals in South-East England. The objective of this study was to identify the epidemiology and risk factors for infection. METHODS: An investigation into a cluster of cases of confirmed CDI in pregnant/postpartum women was performed over a 12-month period, from June 2016 to June 2017. RESULTS: Eleven cases, in 10 patients, were identified, including 1 patient who had a relapse. Eight of 10 patients developed symptoms after hospital discharge. All patients had received broad-spectrum antibiotics prior to CDI onset. Environmental vectors, such as labor room mattresses, that were found difficult to effectively decontaminate after heavy contamination with blood, feces, and other body fluids may have been possible reservoirs. An infection control care bundle was successful in preventing further cases. CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic use and exposure to the organism in a contaminated labor room environment are likely risk factors for healthcare-associated CDI in postpartum women. Active surveillance is necessary to prevent these infections, as these cases often present after hospital discharge.

Enhanced surveillance of syphilis cases among men who have sex with men in London, October 2016-January 2017.

Syphilis rates have been increasing in men who have sex with men (MSM) in London. To describe risk behaviour and refine public health interventions, we conducted prospective enhanced surveillance of new syphilis cases in MSM attending selected London sexual health clinics (SHCs) between October 2016 and January 2017. Sexual health advisors (SHAs) completed 107 questionnaires. Eighteen per cent of respondents reported always using condoms, with lower use in HIV-positive (8%, 4/53) than HIV-negative men (33%, 14/52). Almost half of respondents reported condomless sero-discordant sex (46%, 33/72). The most frequent means of meeting new partners reported were venues (80%, 76/95), particularly bars or clubs (34%, 32/95), and apps or websites (79%, 75/95). Nearly a third of respondents reported engaging in group sex (32%, 30/95). Almost half reported drug use during sex (47%, 46/98), with HIV-positive men more likely to report use of the three main 'chemsex' drugs. The majority of respondents preferred health promotion information from SHAs (63%, 58/92) compared to other sources such as Google/Wikipedia and apps. Prevention activity should continue to focus on condomless sex, serosorting, multiple and overlapping partners, and chemsex. SHCs, particularly those serving HIV-positive men, are important sources for sexual health promotion advice.

Acute Kidney Injury and Risk of Death After Elective Surgery: Prospective Analysis of Data From an International Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with a high mortality rate. However, the relationship among AKI, its associations, and mortality is not well understood. METHODS: Planned analysis of data was collected during an international 7-day cohort study of adults undergoing elective in-patient surgery. AKI was defined using Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes criteria. Patients missing preoperative creatinine data were excluded. We used multivariable logistic regression to examine the relationships among preoperative creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), postoperative AKI, and hospital mortality, accounting for the effects of age, major comorbid diseases, and nature and severity of surgical intervention on outcomes. We similarly modeled preoperative associations of AKI. Data are presented as n (%) or odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: A total of 36,357 patients were included, 743 (2.0%) of whom developed AKI with 73 (9.8%) deaths in hospital. AKI affected 73 of 196 (37.2%) of all patients who died. Mortality was strongly associated with the severity of AKI (stage 1: OR, 2.57 [1.3-5.0]; stage 2: OR, 8.6 [5.0-15.1]; stage 3: OR, 30.1 [18.5-49.0]). Low preoperative eGFR was strongly associated with AKI. However, in our model, lower eGFR was not associated with increasing mortality in patients who did not develop AKI. Conversely, in older patients, high preoperative eGFR (>90 mL·minute·1.73 m) was associated with an increasing risk of death, potentially reflecting poor muscle mass. CONCLUSIONS: The occurrence and severity of AKI are strongly associated with risk of death after surgery. However, the relationship between preoperative renal function as assessed by serum creatinine-based eGFR and risk of death dependent on patient age and whether AKI develops postoperatively.

An unusual outbreak of norovirus associated with a Halloween-themed swimming pool party in England, 2016.

In October 2016, an outbreak of norovirus occurred among attendees of a Halloween-themed party at a public swimming pool in the south-east of England. Norovirus genogroup II was confirmed in 11 cases. In the retrospective cohort study of pool users, 68 individuals (37 female and 31 male), with a median age of 11 years (range: 0-50 years), met the case definition of developing diarrhoea or vomiting between 6 and 72 h after the pool visit. Multivariable analysis showed that increasing age was associated with a reduced risk of illness (odds ratio = 0.91; 95% confidence interval: 0.83-0.99). Pool behaviours (swallowing water) and the timing of visit (attending pool party after automatic dosing system was switched off) were independently associated with increased risk. Environmental investigations revealed that the automatic dosing system was switched off to reduce chlorine levels to an intended range of 0.5-1 parts per million to facilitate the use of a commercial red dye. There was a lack of compliance with the operator's own pool operating procedures, particularly on maintaining effective chlorine levels in pool water, recording of test results and recording of actions undertaken. This outbreak highlights the risks of lowering chlorine levels when using pool water colourants.

Understanding Tuberculosis Transmission in the United Kingdom: Findings From 6 Years of Mycobacterial Interspersed Repetitive Unit-Variable Number Tandem Repeats Strain Typing, 2010-2015.

Genotyping provides the opportunity to better understand tuberculosis (TB) transmission. We utilized strain typing data to assess trends in the proportion of clustering and identify the characteristics of individuals and clusters associated with recent United Kingdom (UK) transmission. In this retrospective cohort analysis, we included all culture-confirmed strain-typed TB notifications from the UK between 2010 and 2015 to estimate the proportion of patients that clustered over time. We explored the characteristics of patients in a cluster using multivariable logistic regression. Overall, 58.5% of TB patients were concentrated in 2,701 clusters. The proportion of patients in a cluster decreased between 2010 (58.7%) and 2015 (55.3%) (P = 0.001). Being a clustered patient was associated with being male and UK-born, having pulmonary disease, having a previous TB diagnosis, and having a history of drug misuse or imprisonment. Our results suggest that TB transmission in the UK decreased between 2010 and 2015, during which time TB incidence also decreased. Targeted cluster investigation and extended contact tracing should be aimed at persons at risk of being in a transmission chain, including UK-born individuals with social risk factors in clusters with a high proportion of patients having pulmonary disease.

Transmission events revealed in tuberculosis contact investigations in London.

Contact tracing is a key part of tuberculosis prevention and care, aiming to hasten diagnosis and prevent transmission. The proportion of case-contact pairs for which recent transmission occurred and the typical timespans between the index case and their contact accessing care are not known; we aimed to calculate these. We analysed individual-level TB contact tracing data, collected in London from 20/01/2011-31/12/2015, linked to tuberculosis surveillance and MIRU-VNTR 24-locus strain-typing information. Of pairs of index cases and contacts diagnosed with active tuberculosis, 85/314 (27%) had strain typing data available for both. Of these pairs, 79% (67/85) shared indistinguishable isolates, implying probable recent transmission. Of pairs in which both contact and the index case had a social risk factor, 11/11 (100%) shared indistinguishable isolates, compared to 55/75 (75%) of pairs in which neither had a social risk factor (P = 0.06). The median time interval between the index case and their contact accessing care was 42 days (IQR: 16, 96). As over 20% of pairs did probably not involve recent transmission between index case and contact, the effectiveness of contact tracing is not necessarily limited to those circumstances where the index case has transmitted disease to their close contacts.

Changing climate shifts timing of European floods.

A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale.